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Peer Reviewed
Objective
Estimate the long-term effects on opioid death and incarceration resulting from increasingly strict fentanyl possession laws .
Findings/Key points
Our model shows that lowering thresholds for felony possession of fentanyl containing drugs can lead to more opioid overdose deaths and incarceration.
Design/methods
We built a Markov simulation model to explore the potential outcomes of a 2022 Colorado law which made possession of >1 g of drug with any amount of fentanyl a Level 4 drug felony (and escalation of the previous law, where >4 g of any drug with any amount of fentanyl in possession was considered a felony). The model simulates a cohort of people with fentanyl possession moving through the criminal justice system, exploring the probability of overdose and incarceration under different scenarios, including various fentanyl possession policies and potential interventions.
