Overdose as a complex contagion: modelling the community spread of overdose events following law enforcement efforts to disrupt the drug market

Original research
by
Humphrey, Jamie L. et al

Release Date

2025

Geography

USA

Language of Resource

English

Full Text Available

Yes

Open Access / OK to Reproduce

Yes

Peer Reviewed

Yes

Objective

Ongoing law enforcement strategies to disrupt local unregulated drug markets can have an iatrogenic effect of increasing overdose by driving consumers towards new suppliers with unpredictable drug products of unknown potency.

Findings/Key points

Neighbourhoods with more structural racism, economic deprivation or urban blight were associated with higher rates of non-fatal overdose. An opioid seizure that occurred within 250 m and 3 days, 250 m and 7 days, and 250 m and 14 days of an overdose event increased the risk of a new non-fatal overdose by 2.62, 2.17 and 1.83, respectively. Results demonstrated that overdoses exhibit a community spread process, which is exacerbated following law enforcement strategies to disrupt the unregulated drug market. 

Design/methods

Cross-sectional study using point-level information on law enforcement opioid-related drug seizures from property room data, opioid-related non-fatal overdose events from emergency medical services and block group-level social determinants of health data from multiple sources. 

Keywords

Advocacy
Barriers and enablers
Decriminalization/legalization
Equity
Harm reduction
Illegal drugs
Legal system/law enforcement
Mortality
Overdose
Poverty