Investigating the Spatial Association between Supervised Consumption Services and Homicide Rates in Toronto, Canada, 2010-2023

Original research
by
Werb, Daniel et al

Release Date

2024

Geography

Canada

Language of Resource

English

Full Text Available

Yes

Open Access / OK to Reproduce

No

Peer Reviewed

No

Objective

Supervised consumption sites (SCS) are effective at preventing overdose mortality. However, their effect on public safety remains contested. We investigated homicide rates in areas near SCS in Toronto.

Findings/Key points

Overall, 956 homicides occurred, and 590 (62%) were fatal shootings and stabbings. There was no significant change in the rate of fatal shootings and stabbings within 3 kms of SCS (near and far zones) after their implementation (all p > 0.05). However, between 48 and 60 months post-implementation, we detected a significant increase in out zones (p < 0.05). In an ITS analysis, we observed a significant reduction in the monthly incidence in near zones (p < 0.05) and a significant increase in out zones (p < 0.05).

SCS implementation was not associated with increased homicide rates; instead, we observed a reduction in monthly incidence near SCS. These results may inform drug market activity responses that optimize community health and safety.

Design/methods

We classified coroner-reported fatal shootings and stabbings by geographic zone: within 500 meters (‘near’), between 500 meters and 3 kilometers (‘far'), and beyond 3 kilometers of an SCS (‘out’). We then used Poisson regression to calculate the rate ratio (RR) across zones 18, 36, 48, and 60 months pre vs. post SCS implementation. Finally, we compared spatial homicide incidence prior to and after the date of the implementation of each SCS using interrupted time series (ITS).

Keywords

Advocacy
Crime
Harm reduction
Policy/Regulatory
SCS/OPS
Peer/PWLLE program involvement