Release Date
Geography
Language of Resource
Full Text Available
Open Access / OK to Reproduce
Peer Reviewed
Objective
To develop an individual-level prediction tool for risk of return to use in opioid use disorder.
Findings/Key points
A simplified score provided good clinical risk stratification wherein patients with weekly opioid-negative UDS results in the 3 weeks after treatment initiation had a 13% risk of return to use, compared with 85% for those with 3 weeks of opioid-positive or missing UDS results.
Design/methods
This decision analytical model used predictive modeling with individual-level data harmonized in June 1, 2019, to October 1, 2022, from 3 multicenter, pragmatic, randomized clinical trials of at least 12 weeks’ duration within the National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network (CTN) performed between 2006 and 2016. Predictive models were developed for return to use, which was defined as 4 consecutive weeks of urine drug screen (UDS) results either missing or positive for nonprescribed opioids by week 12 of treatment.
